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BIG MARLEY’S UFC ON ESPN+ 9 DRAFTKINGS BREAKDOWN

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This weekend, we’ve got a 12-fight card in Canada. DraftKings has some strong competitions for us to win a great deal of cash from this week. The main GPP is a $15 buy-in and $25k belongs to 1st place with a total of $100k being paid out. They also have a brand new Qualifier only competition for $175,000. There will be 100 qualifiers for that competition and they will compete for a $50k first location price and $175k will be spread out between all 100 entries that match. I will try to receive my 2nd chair this week if at all possible. Those Qualifier only competitions can be real bankroll suckers, so be careful chasing those too hard. I will probably stick to the very best GPP this week and throw a handful of entries at the $25k decoration, then I will likely have a few shots in the Q. I will also be publishing H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs through the week to receive a good amount of play into money games.
With that said, let’s get into a couple plays I enjoy this week Together with my fade of this week:
Cash Game play of the week — Macy Chiasson — $9,400
Macy Chiasson is by far the safest play on the board this week and she has 100+ stage upside down. She’s a lock in my cash matches this week and I don’t really see the way she loses. I believe a submission could be Moras’ best chance but she isn’t capable of getting the fight to the ground, so that I see her becoming dominated on the feet before the ref measures. She’s by far my favorite play at the 9k selection and she’s a -750 on the gambling line. I enjoy playing with it safer in money games and I believe she’s a safe win this week.
GPP play of this week — Greg Hardy- $8,600
This is a simple one for me and he’ll be the chalk of this week. I’ll still be overweight on Merab though. His style is precisely what we want on DraftKings. He’s got a nonstop pace and he shoots for takedowns frequently. He has 22 landed takedowns in his first 3 UFC fights which is his best route to victory in this matchup as well. Even with two losses on his album from those 3 fights, he still averages more DK points than Katona does with his 2-0 UFC record. This isn’t my GPP play of the week since I understand he is going to win, I only know IF he wins he will score highly, and he should easily reach value on an $8.6k price tag.
Underdog play of this week — Donald’Cowboy’ Cerrone — $7,800
I must pick Cowboy as the puppy of the week. His fights are always action packed and the winner of this fight will definitely be on the first-place lineup. Especially if it is Cowboy. He almost always scores over 100 points in his wins and he’s 5-rounds to use here. I don’t see a situation in which he wins and does not end up on the 25k lineup. I’ll be overweight on Cowboy this week, but this really is an all-in struggle for me. If Cowboy is not in a one of my lineups, then you will see Iaquinta there. I’m thicker on the Cowboy side though and I think he gets the job done by submission.
Fade of the week — Elias Theodorou ($8,000)
I would be very surprised to see Theodorou on the 1st location lineup this week. I would be amazed to see him get even 10x his $8k price tag and that’s why I have zero lineups with him this week. Not counting his struggle with Dan Kelly, his 4 wins earlier that scored 76, 69, 64, and 49. His style is just bad for DraftKings. He will have to knock Brunson out if he is going to score tremendously and he is not a power puncher. I think you’re better off taking Elias from TKO on the gambling line in +870. I really don’t find any reason to invest in this week at GPPs because he doesn’t possess the ceiling we would like to win that big $25k. I think he’s fine in cash games as a 65-point win would not kill us . However he’s a simple fade of the week for me this Saturday.
Thank you for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown each struggle on the card and also provide my entire DraftKings evaluation, in Addition to all my pick predictions, then you’ll find that for only $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium bets are available at that link too. I am 71-45 for +233.79un (+$23,379) because May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)

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